We've looked at what's wrong with the default 5e initiative system and several alternatives that won't solve the problem. Now it's time for a proposed solution. Here's what I tried. (It didn't work, but it was a valiant effort.)
Here's what we need from a solution:
Initiative as player-managed risk or uncertainty. The initiative order should respond to players' decisions during the combat encounter itself, but the players' decisions should be subject to risk or uncertainty. That is, their decisions should make it more or less likely that they go before or after others, but it should rarely be a matter of certainty.
Initiative should reflect both dimensions of player agency. The consequences of player decisions about Dexterity scores and anything else that affects Dexterity checks should still matter in the background, even as player decisions in the combat round itself matter.
Initiative order should be a consequence of action selection. Player's shouldn't choose their initiative position directly. Instead, their initiative position should be a predictable (but not determinate) consequence of the action decisions they are making anyway.
Initiative resolution should not interrupt game flow. Stopping the game for the initiative ceremony must end!
And here's a bonus criterion I haven't said anything about so far: The initiative system should reinforce the idea that, in combat, everything is happening all at once, not one turn at a time.
With those things in mind, here's my proposal for a solution. It is probably deceptive in its simplicity. I think that's good.
Drum roll .....
Use both the Initiative Score and Speed Factor Initiative variants from the 2014 DMG. Together. At the same time.
Here's how that will play out.
- At the start of each round, the DM decides what the monsters are going to do and notes their modified initiative scores, usually 10 + Dexterity modifier + speed and size factors. At the same time, players are deciding what they are going to do that round and noting their modified initiative scores.
- Next, the DM asks the players for their actions and modified initiative scores, noting them all down.
- Then, all the actions get resolved, from highest initiative to lowest. Ties get broken by Dexterity score or by random roll.
- Then, we move to the next round and start over.
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